Awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony

(TradeTheNews.com)

Notes/Observations

– Focus on Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress to gauge the rate path outlook and any hawkish or dovish tilts in his language (Markets currently priced in 72% chance for 25bps and 28% for 50bps hike in Feds Mar meeting)

– Biden to propose raising tax on people who earn over $400K and reduce what Medicare pays for prescription drugs. Plans to extend Medicare for another generation

– European core inflation remains a threat for Central Banks as BOE Mann stated concern over the persistence of core inflation, while ECBs De Cos noted core CPI to stay high in the short-term

– Dovish RBA rate hike as forward guidance is tweaked with the language of “more rate hike needed over the months ahead” being removed. The statement noted that the monthly CPI indicator suggested that inflation had peaked

– Asia closed mixed with the Shanghai Composite underperforming at -1.1%. EU indices are -0.1% to +0.1%. US futures are +0.1-0.3%. Gold -0.3%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -0.1%, WTI -0.1%, TTF +0.4%; Crypto: BTC -0.1%, ETH +0.1%

Asia

– RBA raised the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.60%; tweaked its forward guidance that further monetary tightening would be needed to ensure that inflation returned to target (left out the language for hikes in the coming months ahead); Believed that inflation had peaked

– China Feb YTD Trade Balance: $116.9B v $82.5Be imports and exports decline for the first time since 2020

– South Korea Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.4% advance; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4% advance

– Japan Jan Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.9%e; Real Cash Earnings registered its largest decline since May 2014 (Y/Y: -4.1% v -3.2%e) (**Note: four-decade-high inflation squeezed the purchasing power of consumers)

– Japan Lower House to vote on confirmation for the BOJ Gov & Dep Gov’s on Thursday (before planned BOJ decision)

Taiwan

– Taiwan President Tsai said to plan on meeting with US House Speaker McCarthy in California

– China Foreign Min Qin Gang’s 1st speech noted that the US’s China policy entirely deviated from the rationale and soundtrack. Reiterated stance that resolutely opposed all forms of hegemony and the cold war mentality; to resolutely defend our national sovereignty and security

Europe:

– UK Feb BRC Sales LFL Y/Y: 4.9% v 3.9% prior

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.19% at 465.05, FTSE +0.04% at 7,933.00, DAX +0.22% at 15,688.05, CAC-40 +0.15% at 7,384.23, IBEX-35 -0.05% at 9,506.65, FTSE MIB +0.05% at 27,964.00, SMI +0.07% at 11,154.80, S&P 500 Futures +0.17%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board, but later turned around to trade generally positive; better-performing sectors include consumer discretionary and utilities; underperforming sectors include energy and financials; Wood Group rejects a fourth approach from Apollo; reportedly Michelin found a buyer for its Moscow plant; focus on Powell testimony before Congress later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Dole and Dick’s Sporting Goods

Equities

– Consumer discretionary: HelloFresh [HFG.DE] -4.0% (reports Q4), Wincanton [WIN.UK] -25.0% (contract and trading update), Zalando [ZAL.DE] +5.5% (reports FY22), Dufry [DUFN.CH] +1.0% (reports FY22, beats estimates), Puma [PUM.DE] -1.0% (analyst action – cut to neutral at UBS)

– Healthcare: Synlab [SYAB.DE] +3.5% (analyst action – raised to buy at HSBC), Poxel SA [POXEL.FR] +18.5% (trial data), GenSight Biologics [SIGHT.FR] -20.0% (update on drugs’ approval timelines)

– Industrials: John Wood Group [WG.UK] +14.5% (rejects proposal to be acquired), TRATON [8TRA.DE[ +6.0% (earnings), Schaeffler [SHA.DE] -6.0% (reports FY22), Rolls-Royce [RR.UK] -0.5% (analyst actions – cut to equal weight at Barclays), Hochtief [HOT.DE] +2.5% (analyst action -raised to buy at Stifels)

– Telecom: Tremor International [TRMR.UK] -12.0% (earnings)

Speakers

– ECB’s de Cos (Spain) stated that core CPI to stay high in the short-term and then ease gradually. The domestic GDP outlook is likely to be revised higher, while CPI is to be revised lower

– BOE’s Mann (Hawk) stated that she was right in pushing for higher rates. Noted that the terminal rate was beyond the forecast horizon for now. Concerned about the persistence of core inflation. GBP currency was important for the domestic economy and inflation. The hawkish tone coming from Fed and ECB officials and the GBP currency (Pound) could weaken if not priced in

– Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Thedeen stated that it was risky to refrain from rate hikes

– Czech Central Bank Kubicek stated favored the approach of keeping rates steady for longer. Believed the current policy setting was appropriate unless wages picked up or FX weakened. Inflation could decline to between 6.0-8.0 by Dec but the real fall would not happen at the start of next year

– President Biden said to propose raising the taxes on people earning over $400K/year to ensure that the healthcare program for seniors is funded for the next two decades

Currencies/fixed income

– FX markets were quiet with the main focus awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress to gauge the rate path outlook. Powell’s testimony comes just ahead of before the black-out period commenced ahead of the FOMC meeting. Dealers to assess the current extent of the current hiking cycle and just how high terminal rates might be. Also, the possibility whether any further magnitude of hikes would increase

– EUR/USD drifted lower after ECB Consumer Expectations Survey saw inflation easing with next 12 months lowered from 5.0% to 4.9% and the 3-year outlook cut from 3.0% to 2.5%

– GBP/USD holding above the 1.20 level. BOE’s Mann noted that the pound could weaken further as markets absorb the implication of plans by the Fed and ECB to raise interest rates.

– AUD/USD was softer after what was perceived as a dovish RBA rate hike. Dealers noted that the forward guidance was tweaked with the language of “more rate hike needed over the months ahead” being removed. The statement noted that the monthly CPI indicator suggested that inflation had peaked

Economic data

– (ZA) South Africa Feb Gross Reserves: $61.0B v $61.7Be; Net Reserves: $54.1B v $54.3Be

– (CH) Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate: 2.1% v 2.1%e; Unemployment Rate (adj): 1.9% v 1.9%e

– (DE) Germany Jan Factory Orders M/M: +1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y:-10.9% v -12.5%e

– (UK) Feb Halifax House Price Index M/M: 1.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9% prior

– (DK) Denmark Jan Industrial Production M/M: -7.6% v +15.0% prior

– (SE) Sweden Feb Budget Balance (SEK): +98.0B v -45.7B prior

– (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Production M/M: -8.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -6.6% v 0.0% prior

– (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.9% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v 0.4% prior

– (MY) Malaysia end-Feb Foreign Reserves: $114.3B v $114.4B Prior

– (HU) Hungary Jan Industrial Production M/M: -5.1% v +3.6% prior; Y/Y: -3.2% v +4.3%e

– (ES) Spain Jan Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v +0.8%e; Industrial Output (unadj) Y/Y: +1.2% v -3.1% prior

– (CH) Swiss Feb Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 770.6B v 785.3B Prior

– (AT) Austria Feb Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.5% v +1.5% prior; Y/Y: 10.2% v 13.2% prior

– (TW) Taiwan Feb CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e; PPI Y/Y: 4.1% v 5.6% prior

– (TW) Taiwan Feb Trade Balance: $2.8B v $3.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -17.1% v -12.5%e; Imports Y/Y: -9.4% v -11.8%e

– (CN) China Feb Foreign Reserves: $3.113T v $3.157Te

– (IS) Iceland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -25.9B v -14.6B Prior

– (CZ) Czech Feb International Reserves: $135.3B v $142.7B Prior

– (SG) Singapore Feb Foreign Reserves: $294.1B v $291.7B Prior

– (EU) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: See inflation at 4.9% over the next 12 months (prior to 5.0

– (ZA) South Africa Q4 GDP Q/Q: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 2.2%e

– (GR) Greece Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 4.4% prior; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 4.5% v 3.9% prior

Fixed income issuance

– (ID) Indonesia sold a total IDR11.0T vs. IDR11.0T target in Islamic bills and bonds (sukuk)

– (ZA) South Africa sold a total of ZAR3.9B vs. ZAR3.9B indicated in 2032, 2035, and 2040 bonds

– (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold a total €4.934B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 6-month and 12-month bills

– (UK) DMO sold £4.5B in 3.5% Oct 2025 Gilts; Avg Yield: 4.151% v %3.634% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.08x v 2.23x prior; Tail: 3.0bps v 0.9bps prior

– (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold a total of €1.495B vs. €1.495B indicated in 2033 and 2051 RAGB bonds

Looking ahead

– (IT) Italy Bank of Italy Reports on Balance-Sheet Aggregates

– 05:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 1.186% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 4.11x prior

– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats

– 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €500M in 0.1% Apr 2033 I/L Bonds (Bundei); Real Yield: +0.16% v -0.28% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.5x prior (Jan 10th 2023)

– 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 14.64% prior; bid-to-cover: x v 1.84x prior (Feb 28th 2023)

– 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell combined €2.8B in 3-month and 12-month bills

– Sells €M vs. €800M indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 2.934% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.38x prior (Feb 28th 2023)

– Sells €B vs. €2.0B indicated in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 2.794% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.90x prior (Feb 7th 2023)

– 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) (prior €821.0M with 16 bids recd)

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v -8.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.8% prior

– 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 3.0% prior

– 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb Trade Balance: $2.0Be v $2.6B prior; Exports: No est v $8.9B prior; Imports: No est v $6.3B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.0B prior

– 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb International Reserves: No est v $39.5B prior

– 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.1B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 2.5117% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.51x prior (Feb 7th 2023)

– 06:55 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

– 07:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed)

– 07:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 44.2 prior

– 07:00 (CL) Chile Jan Nominal Wage Y/Y: No est v 10.8% prior

– 08:00 (PL) Poland Feb Official Reserves: No est v $167.2B prior

– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index

– 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data

– 09:30 (TR) Turkey Feb Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -54.3B Prior

– 10:00 (US) Jan Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: -0.4%e v -0.4% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.5%e v 0.0% prior

– 10:00 (US) Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony in Senate

– 12:30 (CH) SNB President Jordan

– 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes

– 15:00 (US) Jan Consumer Credit: $25.4Be v $11.6B Prior

– (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists

– 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories

– 16:55 (AU) RBA Gov Lowe at a business summit

– 18:50 (JP) Japan Jan BoP Current Account: -¥785Be v +¥33.4B prior; Adj Current Account: ¥803.3Bev ¥1.2T prior; Trade Balance (BOP): -¥2.924Te v -¥1.2T prior

– 18:50 (JP) Japan Feb Bank Lending Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior; Bank Lending (ex-trusts) Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior

– 20:10 (JP) BOJ bond purchase operation

– 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills

Read Tightening the purse strings: EU demands fiscal restraint