EU mid-market update: EU PMI data continues to point that any contraction in the region will be shallow; focus on the US jobs report.
– European Services PMI beat or revised upwards for Italy, France, Germany, Euro Zone, and UK; Reinforces theme of better than originally feared growth concerns.
– ECB officials built on 50bps Mar hike confidence after yesterday’s expected 50bps hike; Vasle, Simkus, Kazimir, Rehn and Muller reiterated MPC’s stance on the Mar hike amount but made it clear that the number of hikes beyond Mar was still unknown.
– Weak earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet shake the global tech sector as Nasdaq100 futures sell-off overnight; In the last hour, Nasdaq100 futures have reversed and erased some of earlier losses as the US premarket opened.
– Focus on upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, and Hourly Earnings for Jan.
– Asia closed mixed with Hang Seng underperforming at -1.4%. EU indices are between -0.2% and +0.7%. US futures are -0.3% to -1.5%. Gold -0.3%, DXY -0.1%; Commodity: Brent +0.2%, WTI +0.2%, TTF -4.2%; Crypto: BTC -1.5%, ETH -1.9%.
– China Jan Caixin PMI Services registered its [first expansion in 5 months] (52.9 v 51.1e).
– Japan Jan Final PMI Services: 52.3 v 52.4 prelim [confirms 5th straight expansion.
– Australia Jan Final PMI Services: 48.6 v 48.3 prelims (confirms 4th month of contraction).
– Former BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso to serve on APEC advisory body. APEC Business Advisory Council] noted that Nakaso could still lead task force if named as the next BOJ Gov.
– BOE Gov Bailey stated that MPC was saying it was done with rate hikes as the world was too uncertain. Could not say for sure that any further rate rise would be in smaller steps.
– SNB President Jordan stated that price stability did not happen automatically. Inflationary pressure was stronger than SNB could tolerate, and could not exclude more interest rate increases.
– Reports circulated that some ECB policymakers saw at least two more rate hikes; Some saw the terminal rate at 3.50%.
– US military has been monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been hovering over the northern US for the past few days. Military and defense leaders have discussed shooting it out of the sky.
– US Official stated that the ‘Gang of 8’ staff was briefed on China’s ‘spy balloon’ [US Pentagon said a Chinese spy balloon was seen over the Western US].
– Canada Dept of National Defense: Monitoring a possible 2nd ‘balloon incident’.
– House Speaker McCarthy stated that he would again meet with President Biden again in the US. debt ceiling.
Indices [Stoxx600 -0.13% at 458.60, FTSE +0.22% at 7,837.53, DAX -0.59% at 15,418.25, CAC-40 -0.20% at 7,152.01, IBEX-35 -0.07% at 9,223.19, FTSE MIB -0.41% at 26,990.00, SMI +0.77% at 11,274.60, S&P 500 Futures -0.77%].
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally lower and stayed under pressure through the early part of the session; better-performing sectors include consumer discretionary and materials; among sectors leading into the red are industrials and real estate; Zur Rose sells Swiss business to Migros; Credit Agricole acquires 50% stake in TotalEnergies renewables portfolio; focus on US NFP figures to be released later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Cigna, Regeneron, Aon, and LyondellBasell.
– Consumer discretionary: ASOS [ASOS.UK] -3.5% (analyst downgrade).
– Energy: TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] +1.5% (declares exposure to Adani), Scatec [SSO.NO] -6.0% (reports Q4 – misses estimates).
– Financials: Caixabank [CABK.ES] +1.5% (reports Q4 – guides initial FY23).
– Healthcare: Zur Rose [ROSE.CH] +92% (Sells its Swiss business to the Migros subsidiary Medbase for CHF360M; Affirms FY23 outlook), Sanofi [SAN.FR] -3.5% (reports Q4; outlook).
– Industrials: Skanska [SKAB.SE] -3.5% (reports Q4), Renault [RNO.FR] -2.0% (analyst action – cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux).
– Technology: TomTom [TOM2.NL] +8.5% (reports Q4 – beats estimates).
– ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) raised the 2023 HICP (EU Harmonized CPI) from 5.8% to 5.9%; raised the 2024 HICP (EU Harmonized CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% (**Note: ECB Dec Staff forecast is 3.4%) and set the 2025 HICP (EU Harmonized CPI) at 2.1% (all above ECB target). It raised the 2023 GDP growth forecast from 0.1% to 0.2% (**Note: ECB Dec Staff forecast is 0.5% ) while cutting the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.4%.
– ECB’s Rehn (Finland) reiterated Council’s plan to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at the March meeting as well.
– ECB’s Vasle (Slovenia) reiterated Council’s stance that will raise rates by 50bps in Mar and remain restrictive.
– ECB’s Simkus (Lithuania) stated that headline inflation had likely peaked but the core remains stubborn. March might not be the last hike of 50bps. Noted that it was unlikely to cut the rate later this year.
– ECB’s Kazimir (Slovakia) stated that interest rates are likely to remain at peak level for some time, Yet to decide how many more hikes beyond Mar. Did not believe that the March rate hike would be the last as it would not take the level to its terminal rate yet.
– ECB’s Muller (Estonia) noted that core inflation was a cause for concern; a Reiterated 50bhike in March was needed to tame inflation.
– BOE Gov Bailey reiterated the stance that was too early to say the Feb rate hike was the last one.
– BOE Pill (chief economist) stated that still a lot of policies in the pipeline and important MPC did not do too much on monetary policy. Did not want to steer market interest rates on day to day basis. Reiterated MPC had changed language quite substantially. The confident latest rate rise was necessary and appropriate – High confidence that inflation would fall through H2.
– China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao stated that it was gathering data on spy balloons and verifying the facts. Stressed that China did not violate other nations’ sovereignty and hoped both sides could handle the matter calmly and prudently.
– China State Planner NDRC to raise retail fuel prices in the current bi-monthly cycle; effective Feb 4th.
– USD recovered from a recent spat of down days as market participants recalibrate their views on the global rate cycle..
– EUR/USD drifted from session lows to move back above the 1.09 level \as various ECB speak highlight that more hikes are coming.
– GBP/USD dipping below the 1.22 level as BOE may have already reached the end of the rate hike cycle.
– (RU) Russia Jan Services PMI: 48.7 v 45.9 prior (4th straight contraction); Composite PMI: #49.7 v 48.0 prior.
– (TR) Turkey Jan CPI M/M: 6.7% v 4.0%e; Y/Y: 57.7% v 53.8%eh; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 53.0% v 46.7%e.
– (TR) Turkey Jan PPI M/M: 4.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 86.5 % v 97.7% prior.
– (ZA) South Jan Africa South Africa PMI (Whole economy): 48.7 v 50.0e (1st contraction in 3 months).
– (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 226.5K v 140.0K tons prior.
– (TH) Thailand end-Jan Foreign Reserves: $226.0B v $216.6B prior.
– (SE) Sweden Jan PMI Services: 51.0 v 52.9 prior (32nd month of expansion); PMI Composite: 49.9 v 50.9prior.
– (FR) France Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.8%e.
– (FR) France Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y:4.1 % v 4.2% prior.
– (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jan 27th (RUB):16.30 T v 16.40T prior.
– (TW) Taiwan Dec Monitoring Indicator: 12 v 12 prior.
– (ES) Spain Jan Services PMI: 52.7 v 52.5e (3rd straight expansion); Composite PMI: 51.6 v 51.1e.
– (TW) Taiwan Jan Foreign Reserves: $557.1B v $554.9B prior.
– (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: +1.1% v -2.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.7% v +0.3%e.
– (IT) Italy Jan Italy Services PMI: 51.2 v 51.0e (1st expansion in 5 months); Composite PMI: 51.2 v 51.3e.
– (FR) France Jan Final Services PMI: 49.4 v 49.2 prelim (confirmed 3rd straight contraction); Composite PMI: 49.1 v 49.0 prelim.
– (DE) Germany Jan Final Services PMI: 50.7 v 50.4 prelims (confirmed 1st expansion in 7 months); Composite PMI: 49.9 v 49.7 prelim.
– (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final Services PMI: 50.8 v 50.7 prelims (confirmed 1st expansion in 7 months); Composite PMI: 50.3 v 50.2 prelim.
– (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 1.9% v 1.8%e.
– (UN) FAO Dec World Food Price Index: 131.2 v 132.2 prior.
– (UK) Jan Final Services PMI: 48.7 v 48.0 prelim (confirmed 4th straight contraction); Composite PMI: 48.5v 47.8 prelim.
– (UK) Jan Official Reserves Changes: $2.5B v $1.2B prior.
– (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: +1.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 24.6% v 22.4%e.
– (CY) Cyprus Jan CPI M/M: -1.3% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 7.9% prior.
Fixed income issuance
– (IN) India sold a total of INR280B vs. INR280B indicated in 2027, 2033, and 2052 bonds.
– (ZA) South Africa sold a total of ZAR1.2B vs. ZAR1.2B indicated in I/L 2033, 2046, and 2050 Bonds.
– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Live Register Monthly Change: No est v +0.3K prior; Live Register Level: No est v 185.7K prior.
– 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £4.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.5B and £2.0B respectively).
– 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) ORI auction.
– 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Jan 27th: No est v $573.7B prior.
– 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2026 and 2037 RIKB Bonds.
– 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
– 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).
– 07:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v +0.9% prior.
– 07:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence: 42.9e v 42.5 prior.
– 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Services PMI: No est v 51.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.1 prior.
– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
– 08:00 (NL) ECB’s Elderson (Netherlands)
– 08:30 (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +189Ke v +223K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +190Ke v +220K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +6Ke v +8K prior.
– 08:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.6%e v 3.5% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 6.5% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3%e v 62.3% prior.
– 08:30 (US) Jan Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.6% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.3 prior.
– 09:45 (US) Jan Final S&P/Markit Services PMI: 46.6e v 46.6 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 46.6 prelim.
– 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Services Index: 50.5e v 49.2 prior (revised from 49.6); Prices Paid: No est v 68.1 prior (revised from 67.6).
– 12:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after the European close.
– 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.
– (CO) Colombia Jan CPI M/M: 1.9%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 13.3%e v 13.1% prior.
– (CO) Colombia Jan CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.0% prior.
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