– EURUSD has managed to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp decline.
– The dollar’s market valuation continues to drive the pair’s action.
– Euro could have a difficult time pushing higher in the near term.
EUR/USD has regained its traction early Thursday after having lost nearly 100 pips on Wednesday. The pair approaches key resistance area that could cap the upside as investors await key data releases from the US.
Boosted by rising US Treasury bond yields, the greenback continued to gather strength on Wednesday and the US Dollar Index (DXY) registered its biggest one-day gain since early May. The Fed started shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet on June 1ts and the data from the US showed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand at a robust pace in May, helping the dollar outperform its rivals.
Nevertheless, the improving market mood, as reflected by rising US stock index futures, weighs on the DXY early Thursday and allows EUR/USD to pull away from the 10-day low it touched at 1.0626 on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted earlier in the day that inflation in the euro area was too high and too broad. “Normalization of the ECB policy is required,” Villeroy said.
In the second half of the day, the US private sector employment report published by the ADP will be watched closely by market participants. Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be featured in the US economic docket as well. Considering how the upbeat data helped the dollar find demand on Wednesday, a similar market reaction could be witnessed if the data suggest that the US economy remains in a good spot with tight labor market conditions.
US ADP Employment Change May Preview: The labor market recedes from center stage.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Despite the latest rebound, the Relative Strength ındex (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays slightly below 50, suggesting that buyers are yet to dominate the pair’s action.
On the upside, 1.0700 (psychological level) aligns as interim resistance ahead of 1.0720 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA). In case the pair rises above the latter and starts using it as support, the next recovery target could be seen at 1.0740 (static level). Until that happens, the bullish pressure is unlikely to gather momentum.
1.0680 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) could be seen as first support. With a four-hour close below that level, sellers could show interest and drag the pair toward 1.0660 (static level) and the 1.0630/1.0620 area (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).
Source: FXStreet – Eren Sengezer