Finland and Sweden set to submit NATO applications

EU Mid-Market Update: Finland and Sweden set to submit NATO applications in historical move while Russia pulls back from 2nd largest Ukrainian city Kharkiv; China economic data still disappoints.

Notes/Observations

– Weaker-than-expected Chinese data for April prompts some risk aversion flows.

– Some more verbal intervention from ECB members on weak Euro and its complications to the inflation outlook.

– According to military officials and experts, Russian troops pulling back from 2nd largest Ukrainian city Kharkiv and focusing on guarding supply routes moving towards Russia-Ukraine border.

Asia

– Japan Apr PPI (CGPI) M/M: 1.2% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 10.0% v 9.4%e (largest y/y increase in a month since data started).

– China April Retail Sales miss consensus (YoY: -11,1% v -6.6%e).

– China April Industrial Production miss consensus (YoY: -2.9% v +0.5%e).

– China National Stats Bureau (NBS) Official Fu stated that he expected economic condition to improve in May; Had conditions to stabilize consumer prices; Exports faced pressure amid slowing global economy.

– China PBoC conducted 1-year MLF with rate unchanged at 2.85%.

– Shanghai Vice Mayor: 15 out of the city’s 16 districts have reached zero-COVID outside of quarantined areas status; aims to restore normal life in Jun.

– South Korea President Yoon stated the country was facing difficult environment, inflation ,interest rate having negative impact on market, budget formed with focus on stabilizing rates and prices; total size KRW59.4T.

– IMF Executive Board concluded Quinquennial SDR Valuation Review and determined new currency weights for SDR Valuation Basket; updated basket implied slightly higher weights for the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi and, accordingly, somewhat lower weights for the British pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen.

Russia/Ukraine

– Sweden PM Andersson to seek parliamentary approval for NATO application on Monday, May 16th.

– On May 15th, NATO reportedly expected to highlight Russia’s behavior as a direct threat in its upcoming strategic document due in June 2022 – press.

– On May 15th NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg stated that Russia’s war in Ukraine was not going as Moscow had planned. They failed to take Kyiv.

– On May 14th G7 foreign ministers vowed to reinforce economic and political isolation on Russia, continued to supply weapons to Ukraine.

– On May 13th Finland President Niinisto official decided to submit NATO application.

– On May 15th, Head of Russia Council Committee on Defense Bondarev stated that Russia would strengthen the grouping of troops on the Finnish border if Finland joined NATO.

– On May 15th Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: West had declared a total hybrid war against Russia, hard to predict how long it would last.

– On May 15th Russia President Putin warned Finland that abandoning neutrality would be a mistake.

– On May 14th Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that Moscow would take adequate precautionary measures if NATO deployed nuclear forces and infrastructure closer to Russia’s border.

Europe

– ECB’s De Cos (Spain) stated that the General Council likely to decide at its next meeting to end its stimulus program in July and raise interest rates “very soon” after that.

– UK PM Johnson reiterated stance to resolve a standoff with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trade rules, To set out next steps on Northern Ireland protocol in the coming days.

– Germany’s conservatives CDU party said to be on track to win a regional election in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) (Note: Victory seen as a blow to Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats which won the federal election last year).

Americas

– Goldman Sachs analysts cut 2022 US GDP growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2023 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6%.

Energy

– EU drafts plan said to offer its gas importers a solution to avoid a breach of Russia sanctions when buying Russian gas via Ruble (RUB) payment scheme proposed by Pres Putin. EU planned to say that companies should make clear that they consider their obligation fulfilled once they pay in euros or dollars in line with existing contracts.

– EU Commission said to consider waiving EU competition rules to allow member states to cap prices for consumers in the event of a complete outage of Russian gas supplies.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.13% at 433.86, FTSE +0.26% at 7,437.49, DAX +0.01% at #, CAC-40 +0.03% at 6,364.78, IBEX-35 +0.44% at 8,374.45, FTSE MIB +0.34% at 24,130.00, SMI +0.30% at 11,684.90, S&P 500 Futures -0.14%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board but moderated losses to trade mixed later in the session; sectors among those trending higher are telecom and utilities; sectors among those leading to the downside are consumer discretionary and materials; telecom sector supported after Emirates takes stake in Vodafone; travel & leisure subsector under pressure following disappointing results from Ryanair; Casino confirms intention to sell GreenYellow; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

– Consumer discretionary: Greggs [GRG.UK] -1% (trading update).

– Financials: Plus500 [PLUS.UK] +3% (trading update).

– Healthcare: Valneva [VLA.FR] -17% (EU terminates vaccine contract), Synairgen [SNG.UK] +32% (trial data).

– Industrials: Ryanair [RYA.UK] -3% (earnings), Michelin [ML.FR] -4% (stock split).

– Technology:

– Materials: Holcim [HOLN.CH] -1% (divestment).

Speakers

– ECB’s Villeroy (neutral, France) stated that saw a consensus on normalizing policy now with the upcoming Jun meeting as decisive and an active summer. ECB should move towards the neutral rate. Carefully monitoring the effective exchange rate and reiterated Council view that too weak Euro would go against the price stability mandate.

– ECB’s Panetta (Italy) stated that could decide by end-2023 to begin the realization phase of Digital Euro.

– EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell stated that could not ensure sanction issues would be resolved at this time but member positions were strong.

– EU Commission Spring Economic Forecasts cut the EU-19 20222 GDP growth forecast from 4.0% to 2.7% and cut the 2023 GDP from 2.8% to 2.3%. It raised the 2022 inflation forecast from 3.5% to 6.1% and also raised the 2023 inflation outlook from 1.7% to 2.7% (**Note: below ECB 2% target) .

– EU’s Dombrovskis: stated that the region was going through a challenging period. Uncertainty and risks to the Euro Zone outlook to remain high. Cut in Russian gas supplies would subtract 2.5% from EU 2022 GDP Growth forecast.

– EU Economic Commissioner Gentiloni (Italy) expected inflation to remain higher for longer.

– Germany Foreign Min Baerbock stated that was not expecting solution on sanctions today, but confident we would find a solution in coming days.

– Irish Foreign Min Coveney urges UK not to take unilateral action; EU was prepared to move on the key demand of the unionist community in Northern Ireland by reducing checks on goods coming into the region from UK.

– Japan govt said to seek to pass the extra budget by end of May (**Reminder: On Apr 26th Japan PM Kishida announced ¥6.2T in stimulus for inflation in energy food and other items and would compile additional ¥2.7T extra budget later).

– Saudi Oil Min Abdulaziz stated that would not export liquefied natural gas (LNG).

– Iraq Oil Min Jabbar stated to raise oil production capacity to 6.0M bps by 2027 from the current level of 4.8M bpd.

Currencies/Fixed income

– USD maintained its firm footing as the week began as weaker-than-expected Chinese data for April prompted some risk aversion flows. USD Index reversal in (DXY) was soft before the Chinese data and strengthened afterwards. Inflation data will continue to be the focus with UK and Canada Apr inflation readings on Wed, Japan Apr inflation reading on Thurs.

– EUR/USD opened under the 1.04 level in the session but recovered some after some more verbal intervention from ECB members on weak Euro and its complications to the inflation outlook. Pair around 1.043 level after testing support level 1.035 last week, pushing higher off the back of ECB member comments this morning.

AUD/USD – trades around 0.690 level (2 year lows).

GBP/USD – trades around 1.220 level after heavily bouncing off 1.230 resistance prior to China data (2 year lows).

NZD/USD – trading between 0.622-0.630 range (2 year lows).

USD/CAD – trading between 1.290-1.300 range (highest since Dec 2020).

USD/CHF – trading around 1.005 level after 1 month bull run, pushing higher off back of ECB member comments (highest since Dec 2019).

USD/JPY – hovers between 128.7-129.6 after pulling back from 130.0-131.0 levels (20 year highs).

Economic data

– (DE) Germany Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: 2.1% v 6.9% prior; Y/Y: 23.8% v 22.6% prior.

– (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 25.0% v 30.0% prior.

– (DK) Denmark Q1 GDP Indicator Q/Q: -0.1%e v +1.1% prior.

– (DK) Denmark Apr PPI M/M: 2.5% v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: 37.4% v 35.1% prior.

– (NO) Norway Apr Trade Balance (NOK): 92.6B v 137.4B prior.

– (CZ) Czech Apr PPI Industrial M/M: 2.3% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 26.6% v 25.5%e.

– (TR) Turkey Mar Current Account Balance: -$5.6B v -$5.7Be.

– (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 753.5B v 750.9B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 666.5B v 665.3B prior.

– (TR) Turkey Apr Central Gov’t Budget Balance (TRY): -50.2B v -69.0B prior.

– (IT) Italy Mar General Government Debt: €2.755T v €2.737T prior (record high).

– (EU) EU Commission Spring Economic Forecasts.

– (EU) Euro Zone Mar Trade Balance (seasonally adj): -€B17.6 v -€17.8Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): -€16.4B v -€7.6B prior.

– (IS) Iceland Apr International Reserves (ISK): 880B v 880B prior.

Fixed income issuance

– (EU) ESM opened its book to sell €2.0B 5-year bond; guidance seen -22bps to mid-swaps.

– (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) sold total €479.7M in 2025, 2032, 2036 and 2047 bonds.

Looking ahead

– (NG) Nigeria Apr CPI Y/Y: 16.4%e v 15.9% prior.

– 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

– 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 12-month BuBills.

– 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-3.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.

– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Trade Balance: No est v €6.1B prior.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.3% prior.

– 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Advance GDP Annualized (1st reading): 2.3%e v 17.8% prior.

– 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS850M in 2024, 2026, 2032 and 2051 bonds.

– 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in 3.25% 2026 Bonds; Avg Yield: % v 6.38% prior, bid-to-cover: x v 2.04x prior.

– 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economist Survey.

– 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

– 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

– 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr CPI Core M/M: 1.1%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.6%e v 6.9% prior.

– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

– 08:00 30 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

– 08:15 (CA) Canada Apr Annualized Housing Starts: 245Ke v 246.2K prior.

– 08:30 (US) May Empire Manufacturing: 15.0e v 24.6 prior.

– 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing Sales M/M: 2.0%e v 4.2% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior.

– 08:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -15.0Be v -22.5B prior; Primary Budget Balance: -1.4Be v +3.5B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 57.1%e v 57.1% prior.

– 08:30 (HU) Hungary PM Orban takes oath of office for new term.

– 08:55 (US) Fed’s Williams participates on panel.

– 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €4.4-5.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

– 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Existing Home Sales M/M: -23.0%e v -5.4% prior.

– 10:15 (UK) BOE Gov Bailey with members Ramsden, Haskel and Saunders testify at Treasury Select Committee.

– 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Trade Balance: -$1.1Be v -$1.1B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.8B prior.

– 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

– 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.5%e v 4.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.7%e v 10.8% prior.

– 12:00 (CO) Colombia Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 7.2%e v 8.1% prior.

– 16:00 (US) Mar Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $141.7B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $162.6B prior.

– 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

– 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 90.5 prior.