Forex Forecast: AUD/USD, GBP/JPY

Breaking Through Resistance: AUD/USD’s Upward Movement in a Channel

(Melina Deltas, CFTe – XM)

AUDUSD rebounded off the 0.6625 support level, which is also near the lower boundary of the short-term upward-sloping channel. Currently, the market is standing above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is approaching a bearish crossover within the 50- and the 200-day SMAs near 0.6740.

Technically, the MACD oscillator is holding above its trigger line in the negative region, while the RSI is pointing upward above the neutral threshold of 50, suggesting that more bullish moves may be on cards.

If the price action jumps above the SMAs, there is scope to test the 0.6790 resistance. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards 0.6857. This is considered to be a strong resistance area that has been rejected a few times in the past. Rising above it would see prices re-test the 0.7030 peaks.

If the 0.6625 support fails, then the focus would shift to the downside towards 0.6560. This level is the previous bottom and if it is breached, this would increase downside pressure and bring about a reversal of the trend. From here, AUDUSD would be on the path toward the 0.6385 low.

Overall, AUDUSD has been positive in the near term since bottoming at 0.6560. In the long-term view, the price is appearing negative as it stands beneath the descending trend line.

Trading GBP/JPY: Analyzing the Bullish Running Triangle Formation

(Gregor Horvat – Wavetraders)

GBPJPY pair is still at the highs on a daily chart, which looks like a consolidation within the uptrend, ideally as a bigger bullish running triangle pattern within a higher degree wave (4).

Currently, we are tracking the final stages of a complex w-x-y rally into wave D that can cause another wave E to slow down. So, once a triangle fully unfolds, be aware of a retest of the highs for wave (5) of a higher degree wave C/B.

The running triangle is a region of horizontal price movement, a consolidation of a prior move, and it is composed of “threes.” That means each of the A-B-C-D-E waves has three sub-waves.