GBPUSD outlook

GBPUSD outlook: Solid UK jobs data additionally support recovery

(Slobodan Drvenica – Windsor Brokers)

Cable keeps positive tone and attacks again pivotal 1.20 resistance zone (psychological / Fibo 38.2% of 1.2406/1.1760 bear-leg / trendline resistance), after Monday’s action spiked to 1.2033 but failed to sustain gains and closed below 1.20.

Sterling received fresh support from strong UK jobs data (unemployment remained unchanged at 3.8% vs 3.9% f/c and the number of people in employment rose by 296,000 in 3 months to May, strongly overshooting forecast for 170,000 increase) which signal that UK labor market is tightening that adds to confidence of the Bank of England about raising interest rates further next month.

Although positive fundamentals and weaker dollar continue to underpin recovery, technical studies on daily chart remain bearishly aligned and warn of limited correction before larger bears re-take control.

Fresh bulls face headwinds from 1.20 zone, which guards next pivotal barrier at 1.2083 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement of 1.2406/1.1760).

Repeated failure to close above 1.20 barrier would generate initial signal of recovery stall, while extended upticks should be capped by 1.2083 resistance to keep larger bears in play.

Res: 1.2000; 1.2055; 1.2083; 1.2125.
Sup: 1.1861; 1.1804; 1.1760; 1.1700.

Daily technical and trading outlook – GBPUSD

(AceTrader Team)

Trend daily chart

Down

Daily Indicators

Bullish convergences.

21 HR EMA

1.1946

55 HR EMA

1.1919

Trend hourly chart

Sideways

Hourly Indicators

Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI

14 HR DMI

+ve

Daily analysis

One more rise b4 decline.

Resistance

1.2114 – 61.8% r of 1.2332-1.1761.
1.2056 – Jul 08 high.
1.2033 – Mon’s high.

Support

1.1935 – Hourly sup.
1.1874 – Last Fri’s high (now sup).
1.1805 – Last Fri’s European low.

GBP/USD – 1.1943.. Outlook here is similar to euro, sterling caught a bid at European open y’day at 1.1879 n easily penetrated last Wed’s 1.1967 top to session highs of 1.2033 in NY on USD’s weakness b4 retreating.

On the bigger picture, despite cable’s brief break of 2016 post-Brexit low of 1.1491 to a near 35-year trough of 1.1412 in mid-Mar 2020 on safe-haven USD’s demand following free fall in global stocks, price rallied to 1.3686 on the last trading day of 2020 following a last-minute EU-UK trade deal, then to a near 34-month 1.4241 peak in Feb suggests a major low is made. Having said that, cable’s erratic fall to 1.2162 in Dec 2021 n then continued decline this year to a 2-year bottom at 1.1934 in mid-Jun n weakness to last week’s 2-year trough of 1.1761 signals correction fm 1.1412 over n may head twd 1.700/10, ‘bullish con- vergences’ on daily indicators should keep price abv 1.1562.

Today, although Mon’s rally to 1.2033 confirms recent downtrend has made a temp. low Thur’s fresh 2-year trough of 1.1761 n as long as 1.1900/10 holds, marginal gain is likely, ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly indicators should limit upside to 1.2056 n yield decline. Below 1.1900 would head to 1.1874/79, 1.1805.

Ichimoku cloud analysis: GBPUSD, brent, USDJPY

(RoboForex Team)

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBP/USD is testing the bearish channel’s upside border. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1905 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2240. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1805. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1705.

Brent

Brent is no longer trading within a Wedge reversal pattern. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 103.75 and then resume moving upwards to reach 119.25. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 99.05. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 94.05. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bearish channel’s upside border and fix above 110.05.

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USD/JPY is correcting within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 136.65 and then resume moving upwards to reach 141.25. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 135.35. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 133.45.