(Kenny Fisher – MarketPulse)
– NZD/USD in negative territory after jumping 2.58% last week.
– US Dollar was broadly lower last week on expectations that Fed rate-tightening is almost over.
The New Zealand dollar has started the week with considerable losses. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6338, down 0.51%. This follows a superb week for the New Zealand dollar, which soared 2.58%.
US Dollar in trouble over Fed expectations
It was a week to forget for the US dollar, which hit a 15-month low. The US dollar index fell by 2.52% last week, its worse weekly performance since November 2022. The New Zealand dollar made the most of the greenback’s woes and pummelled the US dollar even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand took a pause last week for the first time in almost two years.
The US dollar’s nosedive last week against the major currencies was exacerbated by the US inflation report, which was softer than expected. The headline and core rates both eased in June, raising market speculation that the Fed may finally wrap up its rate-tightening cycle after the July 26th meeting. The markets have priced in a July hike at 96% and a pause in September at 83%, according to the CME tool. The Fed has relied on interest rate hikes as its main tool to curb inflation, and an end to the cycle will result in investors looking elsewhere to park their funds.
The US dollar is under pressure, but traders and investors should be careful before writing off the US currency. Earlier this year, the markets were too hasty in betting that the Fed would cut rates and the US dollar would fall. Instead, the Fed continued to raise rates as the US economy remained robust and the US dollar rebounded.
Fed Chair Powell has signaled one more rate after the July meeting and Fed members have sounded hawkish, noting that inflation remains much higher than the 2% target. The markets may once again be getting ahead of themselves in assuming that inflation is won and the Fed is done.
- There is support at 0.6316 and 0.6221.
- 0.6466 and 0.6561 are the next resistance lines.