USDCAD’s fresh advances have breached the broader 1.2927-1.2986 resistance barrier that extends back to early November of 2020. The longer-term 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are discreetly sponsoring the upside, while the rising 50-day SMA is endorsing the recent pickup in positive impetus.
The Ichimoku lines are indicating a pause in upward drive, while the short-term oscillators are advertising conflicting messages in directional momentum. The MACD is implying that bullish forces are strengthening, meanwhile the dipping RSI and the stochastic oscillator are both hinting that buying interest has softened as the pair overstepped the 1.2927-1.2986 key resistance border.
In order to boost gains, the current dwindling positive forces would need to create a foothold off the 1.2927-1.2986 zone, which may result in buyers encountering initial resistance around the near one-and-a-half-year high of 1.3076 and the 1.3112 barrier. Another jump higher – violating the 1.3172 mid-November 2020 high – could encourage buyers to target the high around the 1.3300 handle before they challenge the 1.3389-1.3504 resistance section, which started to take shape around mid-June 2020.
Alternatively, if the ebbing in positive drive escalates and the price retreats, the 1.2927-1.2986 zone may provide some downside friction ahead of the fresh low and the 1.2900 hurdle, where the red Tenkan-sen line also happens to reside. If selling interest intensifies further, the bears could then dive for the blue Kijun-sen line at 1.2766 prior to taking a crack at a fortified support region from the 1.2718 inside swing low until the Ichimoku cloud’s upper band at 1.2649, coupled with the 200-day SMA.
Summarizing, USDCAD has overcome the critical 1.2927-1.2986 ceiling that has curbed advances since early November 2020, which is a positive indication for additional advances to unfold. However, if the price fails to remain north of this border, the pair could sink back into a more neutral price structure.
Source: FXStreet – XM Group – Anthony Charalambous, CFTe