Cardano Price Forecast: Whale Selling Pressure Deepens ADA Correction

Cardano Price Dynamics Amid Whale Selling

As of October 23, 2026, Cardano (ADA) experienced a modest price increase of nearly 2% on Friday following a significant 6% decline the previous day, according to a report from FXStreet. This price movement coincides with increased selling activity from large holders, commonly known as whales, and reflects a broader bearish technical outlook for ADA.

Data from Santiment indicates that whales holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA tokens have reduced their share of the circulating supply to 37.93% on Friday, down from 38.27% on October 10. Conversely, holders with over 100 million ADA tokens slightly increased their dominance to 16.04% from 15.92% in the same period. This shift suggests a nuanced redistribution among large holders but overall points to a sell-side bias.

Additionally, the proportion of ADA supply in profit has dropped sharply to 17.8% from 30.78%, implying a phase of profit-taking that may contribute to near-term selling pressure. Retail traders also appear less bullish, with CoinGlass data showing an 11% decline in ADA futures Open Interest (OI) over 24 hours to $464.36 million. This decline in OI alongside falling spot prices typically signals unwinding of long positions and reduced leverage.

Market liquidations totaled $1.60 million during this period, predominantly from long positions, reinforcing the presence of selling pressure. The funding rate turning negative at -0.0064% further suggests traders are paying a premium to hold short positions, indicating bearish sentiment.

Technical Outlook and Key Levels

At the time of reporting, ADA traded near $0.2159, facing resistance from several technical barriers. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2274 and a broken upward trendline around $0.2282 act as immediate overhead resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $0.2322 represents a more substantial structural hurdle.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 41, reflecting weak momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was declining into negative territory, both indicators pointing to continued selling pressure. On the downside, the $0.2000 round figure serves as immediate support, followed by a horizontal support level at $0.1894, which corresponds to the August 30 low.

FXVNPro Market Perspective

The observed whale selling activity and declining futures Open Interest suggest that large investors are reducing exposure to ADA, which can amplify downward price pressure through increased supply and reduced speculative demand. Negative funding rates typically incentivize short positions, potentially reinforcing bearish momentum in derivatives markets. Technical resistance at the 50-day and 200-day EMAs may limit upside attempts, while weakening momentum indicators imply sellers retain control in the near term.

However, shifts in whale holdings between different size cohorts introduce some uncertainty regarding the distribution of supply and potential future accumulation. The interaction between on-chain whale behavior and derivatives market dynamics will be critical in shaping ADA’s price trajectory.

Trading Scenarios

• If ADA manages to break above the 50-day EMA at $0.2274 and the broken trendline near $0.2282 with sustained volume, then this could signal a short-term reversal attempt, potentially challenging the 200-day EMA resistance at $0.2322.
• If selling pressure persists and ADA falls below the immediate support at $0.2000, then the next key support to watch would be the horizontal level at $0.1894, which may act as a floor for further declines.

What Traders Should Watch

• Changes in whale holdings, particularly any reversal in the recent sell-side bias among large ADA holders.
• Futures Open Interest trends and funding rates, as shifts here may indicate changing sentiment among leveraged traders.
• Price action around the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which serve as critical resistance levels.
• Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD for signs of weakening or strengthening selling pressure.

Source publication date: 2026-10-23 03:42:03.

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