What Is the NFP Forecast Challenge?
The NFP Forecast Challenge is a monthly event hosted by Spec FX where traders and analysts predict the direction
and price level of Gold (XAUUSD) at the exact moment of the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report release. Unlike traditional
trading contests, this challenge does not involve live trading — participants only submit forecasts and compete
based on accuracy.
How to Participate
- Go to the official Spec FX NFP Challenge page.
- Select the direction (Up/Down/Doji) for Gold at NFP release.
- Enter your forecast price value (to two decimals).
- Submit before the deadline (up to 1 hour before NFP release).
- Await results — winners are contacted by email within three business days.
Prize Structure
Each month, the top forecasts are rewarded with real cash prizes:
- 1st Place: $88 USD.
- 2nd Place: $38 USD.
- 3rd Place: $18 USD.
Winners typically receive their rewards after completing account verification within 72 hours.
Forecast Rules & Evaluation
Forecasts are judged based on the 1-minute XAUUSD candle at the exact NFP release time. The candle type
determines direction and accuracy:
- Bullish: Open price is less than close.
- Bearish: Open price is greater than close.
- Doji: Open and close are approximately equal.
Tips for Better Forecasts
Predicting market reactions around NFP requires both economic insight and market sensitivity. Experts recommend:
- Use economic calendars to review consensus estimates.
- Examine related employment and inflation data for clues.
- Be aware of volatility — NFP often causes sharp moves.
Read Tickmill $500 Bonus – NFP Machine
Advertisement
Read Spec FX Review
FAQ
Do I need to place trades to join?
No — you only need to submit your forecast form to participate.
How soon are winners notified?
Winners are usually emailed within three business days after NFP release.
Before trading GOLD (XAUUSD)
Professional traders check the market regime first:
- Is the market window OPEN or CLOSED?
- Should I favor BUY or SELL?
- How risky is the current regime?
👉 Follow the Gold Decision Engine (market context — not a signal service)
View Gold Decision Engine →















































