Gold Price Outlook: Analyst Sees Potential Slide to $3,500 Ahead of US Jobs Data

Gold Price Movement and Analyst Perspectives

As of November 4, 2026, gold (XAU/USD) has recovered slightly above the $4,000 level after a notable decline from its peak earlier this year. The drop from the final top to the recent breakdown measures approximately 17.5%, a percentage that matches the decline gold experienced in 2013 before a more severe collapse. This parallel has led to differing interpretations among analysts regarding gold’s near-term trajectory.

Przemyslaw Radomski presents a bearish outlook based on this historical comparison. He notes that gold topped at $4,696 on August 25 and subsequently closed below its 2026 lows on October 30. According to Radomski, the current pattern mirrors the 2013 decline to the decimal, suggesting a potential slide to around $3,500. He anticipates that after testing this level, gold could rebound to near current levels, with $4,000 acting as resistance, before possibly declining further toward the low $3,000s, near $3,090, if the 2013 pattern fully unfolds. Technical signals support caution: gold is trading below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,050, with a relative strength index (RSI) of 37 on the daily chart, and a one-year low at $3,870.23 serving as key support.

Conversely, other analysts emphasize robust physical demand as a counterbalance to the bearish technical outlook. Data from the World Gold Council’s Q3 report indicates total gold demand of 1,369 tonnes, down only 1% year-on-year, with year-to-date demand of 3,881 tonnes closely matching last year’s record pace. Central banks have increased purchases, acquiring an estimated 321 tonnes—about 100 tonnes above the five-year quarterly average—while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 211 tonnes of inflows, bringing total holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes. This sustained buying activity suggests that prices remain historically elevated but supported by strong fundamentals rather than speculative dip-chasing.

FXVNPro Market Perspective

The gold market’s near-term direction appears closely tied to upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. The NFP is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which in turn affect the US dollar and gold prices. Prior data releases have shown mixed signals, including the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which surprised to the upside with 7.523 million openings. This combination leaves market participants uncertain about the Fed’s policy path and the dollar’s strength, both critical drivers for gold.

Technically, gold’s position below the 20-day EMA at $4,050 and an RSI of 37 indicate bearish momentum, but the presence of a defined support zone near the one-year low of $3,870.23 may limit downside risk in the short term. The market’s reaction to Friday’s jobs data could therefore be pivotal in determining whether gold resumes its slide or stabilizes.

Trading Scenarios

• If the US Nonfarm Payrolls report disappoints relative to expectations, weakening the US dollar and reducing pressure on gold, then gold may find support near the $3,870.23 level and potentially rebound toward the $4,000 resistance zone, consistent with the technical floor highlighted by some analysts.
• If the NFP data strengthens the case for sustained Fed tightening or higher interest rates, then gold could continue its downward trajectory, testing the $3,500 level as suggested by the 2013 decline analogy, with further downside possible toward the low $3,000s if that level fails to hold.

What Traders Should Watch

• Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and its impact on Federal Reserve rate expectations.
• Technical levels including the 20-day EMA at $4,050, RSI at 37, and support near the one-year low of $3,870.23.
• Physical gold demand trends, especially central bank purchases and ETF inflows, as reported by the World Gold Council.
• Broader US economic indicators such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that may influence market sentiment ahead of the NFP release.

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